Comparison of the Two Edge Scenarios

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Running a Trace Vaccination Scenario

Note: in order to run the simulation referred to in this slide, go here, to the Java Applet version. You will be directed to download the latest version of the Java plug-in.

To the left, we've constructed a "Smallpox Attack" model, as promised. This particular society is configured to simulate Trace Vaccination. Each of the 17 agents is shown as a blue circle with a label. If the state's population is too small, the circle appears as a single dot with connection lines emanating from it. The agents represent the following population components of a 10 million person city:


S0 : susceptible, not traced
S1 : susceptible, traced
I01 : infected, not traced, first stage of the disease
I02 : infected, not traced, second stage of the disease
I03 : infected, not traced, third stage of the disease
I04 : infected, not traced, fourth stage of the disease
Q0 : in queue, susceptible
Q1 : in queue, infected, first stage
Q2 : in queue, infected, second stage
Q3 : in queue, infected, third stage
I11 : infected, traced, first stage
I12 : infected, traced, second stage
I13 : infected, traced, third stage
I14 : infected, traced, fourth stage
H : quarantined, infected
Z : immune
D : dead

Two agents (i.e. population components) are connected if and only if some amount of population moves from one state to the other according to the Kaplan, et al. model. In fact, the agents are arranged so that all movement of population occurs from left to right. For instance, I01 connects to I02 because a certain number of untraced individuals in the first stage of the disease enter the second stage of the disease, while remaining untraced. Or Q0 is connected to D because a very small percentage of vaccinated individuals (0.001%) die from the vaccine every day.

Press the "Go" button below to run the society forward through 15 days.

At any point in time, you can select any number of the agents in the graphic to the left (by holding the ctrl key). This displays the total number of individuals in those states at the given point in time. The graphs below show how the total infected population and the total population on the vaccination queue change through time. After the first 15 days pass, note the kink in the graphs at time t = 5 days. This occurs because the governmental policy is actually put into practice 5 days after the start of the outbreak.

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