Running the Interim Scenario

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Switching from Trace to Mass Vaccination

Note: in order to run the simulation referred to in this slide, go here, to the Java Applet version. You will be directed to download the latest version of the Java plug-in.

One goal of this model is to predict what happens in the case of a bioterrorist attack under the current Federal policy. As mentioned before, this policy begins by following a Trace Vaccination procedure. After some time, if the initial size of the attack turns out to be more severe than initially anticipated, the government switches to Mass Vaccination.

The society on the left simulates just such a strategy. The authors of "Smallpox Attack" comment that the switch will be most likely to occur around day 33 in the base-case, after two 14-day generations of the disease cycle.

Use the control panel under the society to set the number of days to advance the scenario at a time, and to switch the policy from Trace to Mass Vaccination. To approximate the government policy, enter "33" in the text field, then press "Go". This will take about 30 seconds to run on a 1GHz computer. Then press the "Switch to MV" button, and continue running the society forward. Note how the curves in the graphs below shift visibly, changing concavity at the point when Mass Vaccination is enacted.

On this slide, you can perform an experiment by varying the point of the switch. Note how the maximum number of infected individuals and the total casualties change depending on when you swap policies.

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